The Threat of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East: Active Defense and Counter-Measures edited by Arieh Stav. Sussex Academic Press (http://www.sussex-academic.co.uk/index.htm), 920 NE 58th Avenue, Suite 300, Portland, Oregon 97213-3644, 2004, 312 pages, $67.50 (hardcover).
I am not an expert on the threat of ballistic missiles. However, I have read enough to know that this is an issue that may well have serious consequences for our national security in both the mid and long term. While the overall ballistic missile threat appears to be declining, signs remain on the horizon that development and proliferation issues still need serious attention. A quick Google search or cursory glance at any major newspaper will bring reminders about the nature and growing complexity of the problem. Therefore, it is fortuitous that Dr. Stav chose to republish this anthology.
Despite original publication in 1999, this compilation of 16 articles by Israeli, American, and British authors is a timely reminder of the scope of the ballistic missile threat, of the complex technological challenge of addressing this threat (as evidenced by the work of our own Missile Defense Agency), and of how quickly events can change in this area. Within this one book, Dr. Stav has brought together a number of contributors of varied backgrounds and provided a primer on the technical issues associated with the intercept problem. This anthology also offers a highly readable discussion of the strategic and operational thinking associated with the development and deployment of systems designed to address this threat. While some of the technical discussion is redundant (Dr. Stav acknowledges this in his introduction), on the whole the book provides a comprehensive review of the issues. Notably, one of the contributors presents a strategic-level discussion of the relative merits of missile defense against the historical Israeli position of preemptive strike to deal with threats facing the nation. As we assess our own missile-defense program, some of the discussions presented here may help illuminate our thinking on these substantive issues at both the national and theater levels.
The technical discussions presented cover all the relevant aspects associated with all three phases—boost, midcourse, and terminal—of the missile-intercept problem in a clear and understandable fashion. The discussions on the limitations of terminal defense and the difficulties of boost-phase intercept are particularly relevant. While we hear discussions about the airborne-laser program in our country, it is interesting to be exposed to other discussions about how to solve the boost-phase intercept problem, most notably using conventional forces or unmanned aerial vehicles. Although the technical discussion is comprehensive, the discussion of the role of missile defense in the formulation of national-security policy is equally interesting and provides an alternative perspective for consideration.
The missile-defense problem, as a strategic issue, is not new to Israelis. They have faced some level of threat since the introduction of Scud missiles in the 1970s when Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya acquired these systems from the Soviet Union. However, what has subsequently evolved in Israeli thinking is the marriage of unconventional warheads, primarily chemical and biological, with newer and cheaper weapon systems and the proliferation of those systems across the Middle East. Whereas we measure our strategic depth in terms of thousands of miles and hundreds of targets, the Israelis measure theirs in terms of tens of miles and a handful of targets. Recent developments—for example, the coalition invasion of Iraq—changed a portion of the landscape, but for the Israelis these events are offset by other developments such as the continuing Iranian development program. But why should we care about a discussion of missile proliferation in the Middle East?
First, while the demise of the Soviet Union greatly reduced the nuclear threat and fundamentally changed the geostrategic equation between our two nations, the continuing proliferation of missile technology to a number of regimes hostile to the United States and our allies has created a different set of problems. Though debate on the scope and level of the threat will continue as it should, the seriousness with which the current administration perceives the threat was clearly illustrated by the US withdrawal from the Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, our subsequent deployment of a limited ABM capability, and our continuing efforts on a system of layered defense not only to protect the homeland but also to address theater-level threats. As mentioned above, the Israeli strategic equation is fundamentally different than ours. Yet, in reviewing the varied positions presented on the Israeli strategic problem and its possible solutions, there is much that is relevant. The Threat of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East indeed provides a different perspective for our own theater-level concerns, especially as we look at the midcourse and terminal-phase intercept problems and other options of addressing the threat.
Therefore, with the one qualification on the amount of redundant technical information provided, I recommend this book. Its technical discussion is excellent and comprehensive. The primarily foreign perspectives on strategic development and deployment issues are illuminating, and the discussion of the operational issues associated with missile defense will certainly reawaken interest in this threat area.
Col Stan Norris, USAF
Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Disclaimer
The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression, academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force or the Air University.
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