Published: 1 December 2008
Air & Space Power Journal - Winter 2008
The Rise of China: How Economic Reform Is Creating a New Superpower by
William H. Overholt. W. W. Norton and Company (http://www.wwnorton.com), 500
Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10110, 1994, 432 pages, $16.95 (softcover).
Over the past 30 years, China’s economy has been resurgent. Recent numbers
published by the World Bank indicate that since 1978 China has averaged an
annual growth of 9.4 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) and a sixfold
increase in GDP from 1984 to 2004; furthermore, in 2004 it represented 12
percent of the world’s economy on the basis of purchasing-power parity (second
only to the United States) and one-third of global economic growth. China has
also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more
than a trillion dollars of domestic, nonpublic investment. Just a dozen years
ago, China barely had mobile telecommunications services. Now it claims more
than 300 million mobile-phone subscribers—the most in the world.
There is no mistaking the fact that China has one of the highest growth rates in
the world, but what does that mean for other countries—particularly, the United
States? In The Rise of China, a dense and scholarly work, William Overholt
addresses these questions and many more. After reviewing China’s ancient and
former status as the Middle Kingdom, he quickly lays out facts indicating that,
notwithstanding the country’s recent gains, it still must overcome extreme third
world poverty, inefficient socialist measures, and disparities between the poor
and rich. The author also compares China to Russia—the country that most
Americans still equate with socialism and communism—arguing that Russia failed
and has continued to fail because of its initial reluctance to reform and its
attempts to do too much too quickly after having finally decided to reform.
Principally, Overholt asserts the superiority of China’s long-term strategy of
piecemeal political and economic reform, maintaining that it will eventually
produce a nation much different from the one we have tended to stereotype.
The author writes exhaustively about China in terms of Hong Kong, international
relations, and the United States, acknowledging that market access and the
treatment of foreign investors present problems for China. Yet he argues that
China has its share of legitimate gripes.
Of most interest to military readers, Overholt outlines that a serious
difference of opinion exists between those who view China as a quietly brooding
aggressor and those who see it as principally interested in the peaceful
acquisition of wealth and influence. The author falls into the latter camp,
asserting that China suffers from being too closely compared to the Soviet Union
and other communist regimes.
He further argues that the United States must be careful not to create a
self-fulfilling prophecy through harsh rhetoric and political blackballing,
recommending that America maintain its strength but adopt a welcoming economic
and rhetorical posture. Additionally, Overholt notes the difference in military
expenditures between the two countries, with China spending $30 billion a
year—one-tenth of US outlays at the time. To the author, this symbolizes the
United States’ upper hand and relative ability to play nice without immediate
fear.
The Rise of China presents a wealth of historical, economic, and political facts
to the reader. Although slightly dated, the book offers relevant information
about political issues and subissues as well as a more-than-adequate backdrop
for a balanced and fair study of China.
Maj Rodney D. Bullard, USAF
Secretary of the Air Force, Office of Legislative Liaison
Washington, DC
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