Published: 1 March 2009
Air & Space Power Journal - Spring 2009

Complexity Theory and Network Centric Warfare, Information Age Transformation Series, by James Moffat. Command and Control Research Program (http://www.dodccrp.org), Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301, 2003, 161 pages (softcover). Available free from http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Moffat_Complexity.pdf.

Complexity Theory and Network Centric Warfare is a concise but technical text on the emerging study of complexity in warfare. No pun intended, but “complex” does indeed convey one’s first impression of this offering from the Command and Control Research Program (CCRP). Not light reading but rather strongly based on advanced calculus and physics, the book speaks to the engineering and scientific community concerned with command and control; however, the concepts apply to all military thinkers who have their eyes on the future of warfare. Ultimately, Complexity Theory serves as a superb reference of computer-modeling data and statistical proof, a catalogue of relevant equations, and, most importantly, a repository of insight into human behavior in warfare. Author James Moffat, a highly regarded Senior Fellow of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (United Kingdom), has 20 years’ experience as a scholar of applied mathematics and operational research. Dedicated to understanding the relationship between command and control and network-centric warfare, the CCRP includes human behavior in its scientific modeling of future warfare.

Dr. Moffat’s contribution continues his previous work on “captur[ing] the key effects of human decisionmaking” in relation to command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (p. 161). He uses complexity theory liberally to define the interaction of complex systems and their environment. Herein, “complex systems” means modern armies (system) and warfare (environment). Dr. Moffat proposes a nonlinear approach to warfare—that is, events in battle happen simultaneously and chaotically—and tidily summarizes his intent by noting that “capturing the process of intelligent agents in conflict, set within a widely divergent set of possible futures, leads to a rich set of possible trajectories of system evolution for analysis to consider. . . . This is the domain of Complexity Theory” (p. 48).

His approach is both intellectually stimulating and philosophically intriguing. Opening the text with an explanation of complexity theory by using the relatively common language of thermodynamics, Dr. Moffat presents an easily understood thesis: no system is closed but is acted upon by many external factors. He cleverly uses an ecosystem as a thorough example of his theory (p. 17). Internally, an ecosystem is codependent on its inhabitants to create and continue life. Externally, the ways that the ecosystem goes about creating and maintaining life are directly proportional to how the outside environment affects it. The rain forest maintains itself as an ecosystem, but its survival depends equally upon its reaction and adaptation to external pressures (i.e., changing weather patterns, human deforestation, etc.).

After each mathematical statement, the author immediately cites a real-world example to model his mathematical imagery for the reader—a refreshing visualization device for individuals unable to grasp the math quickly. Therefore, the middle portion of Complexity Theory uses these various, naturally occurring examples (trees in a forest or cell biology) to relate similarities with human interaction in warfare. This allows the reader to form an abstract, multilevel understanding of how chaos becomes orderly.

Although Dr. Moffat pursues an impressive range of discussion and topics throughout the book, it is not comprehensive. Nevertheless, it represents a major inroad to this evolving methodology of warfare by stressing the nonlinearity of conflict, networking at every level, and the trend from chaos to order in relation to time as battlefield events progress. A diligent complement to the CCRP’s growing canon of work, Complexity Theory offers readers, especially strategic thinkers, a glimpse into the future and an outstanding reference for mathematical models relating to complexity.

Capt Raymond P. Akin, USAF
Los Angeles AFB, California

Disclaimer

The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression, academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force or the Air University.