Spaceflight Revolution by David Ashford. Imperial College Press (http://www.icpress.co.uk), 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE, United Kingdom, 2002, 204 pages, $56.00 (hardcover), $25.00 (softcover).
Although three years
old, Spaceflight Revolution is actually quite timely. This review comes
on the heels of the historic SpaceShipOne flights into space and the successful conclusion of NASA’s X-43 scramjet
experiments, some of which author David Ashford addresses in his book. Despite
the wording of the title, his ideas are not revolutionary but evolutionary.
They follow a time-honored sequence of events that other high-dollar,
high-technology programs have already trodden—migrating from management under
a government agency into the private sector as soon as the program becomes
commercially viable.
Still, Spaceflight
Revolution is visionary. Ashford goes to great lengths to persuade the
reader that space will soon—in 10–20 years—become commercially viable for
tourism and extensive research and, soon thereafter, for commercial applications
(some not yet thought of). Imagine a space plane that transports passengers to
an orbiting hotel where they spend two or three nights marveling at the earth
below and the wonders of zero gravity (or low gravity). Ashford does a good job
of walking the reader through the mechanics of what it will take to realize this
vision.
In his zeal to
convince us of this outcome, however, he
appears to take some statistical and analytical liberties. Several times
Ashford estimates production or development costs of a space-plane project with
rounded up or grossly estimated numbers. For example, figure 12.1,
“Development Cost Trends,” uses a scatter plot of various programs on a
logarithmic scale. The author combines multiple data types in an attempt to
illustrate the point he wants to make—that development costs of a modern space
plane fall well within a country’s or company’s affordable realm. However,
his chart is at best confusing; at worst it is statistically inaccurate. Several
other examples similar to this one tend to make readers question the credibility
of the book’s very extensive analysis. Additionally, Ashford seems to
make too much of the X-15. Granted, it was the only fully reusable “space
plane” for several decades (even the space shuttle cannot make that claim),
but readers get the message after the first few pages.
Nevertheless, this book appeals to my desire that mankind not only reach for the stars but also dwell among them. Given time, I too would seriously contemplate a brief trip to space—perhaps even to a space hotel or stopover (not unlike a visit to the top of the Gateway Arch in Saint Louis or the Washington Monument)—just to relish our fragile home from a new angle. Spaceflight Revolution is a well-thought-out book that drives toward a logical conclusion. If the reader takes the statistics and some of the other analysis with a grain of salt, Ashford’s argument becomes very convincing.
Maj Paul G. Niesen, USAF
Maxwell AFB, Alabama
Disclaimer
The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression, academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force or the Air University.
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