Air University Review, September-October 1977

The Micros are Coming...
The Micros are Coming

Captain Frank J. Derfler, Jr.

NO, YOU don't need to check either your shot record or your musket. These micros are both infectious and revolutionary, but they really are here to help—and you will be glad to have them. The micros in question are microprocessors and microcomputers. Here at last is a technical breakthrough that is coming to the aid of the poor, beleaguered staff officer as well as the operational guy.

Presently, waiting in the wings of the United States electronics industry, are a device and a series of systems, which are in the same sleeper state that citizens band radio was ten years ago. The microcomputer, a kind of miniaturized computer, is perhaps a bit less flexible externally, a trifle more specialized, as "powerful" as the room-filling monsters of a few years ago, about the size of an office typewriter, and. .. cheap!

Recent (circa 1962) developments in large-scale integrated (LSI) circuit technology have led to the development of chips that can do the computing (binary counting, actually) of many sections of previous generation computers. The microprocessor chip is smaller than a ten-cent vending machine candy bar and can do the work of the desk-size central processing unit (CPU) of a computer younger than the new OER system. This microprocessor is combined with input-output devices (a cathode ray tube, keyboard, and possibly a photocopier) and memories, and the system is then called a "microcomputer." These microcomputers are not just small calculators. A computer carries out a whole chain or program of instructions automatically whereas a calculator does just one or perhaps a few steps at a time. To do anything with a calculator, one must enter the numbers through the keyboard and then enter what needs to be done with them (add, subtract, etc.).

The calculator has an "instruction set" wired into it. The microcomputer has a set of instructions provided in the stored program. As the number of microcomputers increases, the cost of these programs will be reduced drastically. The same is true of the hardware.

A microcomputer in mid-1977 cost between $1000 and $5000 with an internal memory of up to 64,000 computer "words." This memory holds the program and the most immediate data being manipulated. It can be supplemented by tape or disc memories that can hold up to a million computer words (about 20,000 English words) in file. The key here is memory. Processing has become cheap and is getting cheaper. Memory for computer systems is still expensive, but some functions can be performed very well with limited and slow (cheaper) memory systems. Systems using things called "charged coupled devices" and "bubble memories" will be available in mid-1978 at greatly reduced prices. The microcomputer companies (not the big computer boys yet) are selling computer systems with programs for bookkeeping in a small business, limited inventory control, and for letter/document writing, correction, and transmission. In short, they are providing a device that can economically file away information, retrieve it quickly when needed, display it logically and help to compose written correspondence about it--all functions of a good staff officer. Here, then, is the breakthrough for the staff officer I mentioned in the introduction. My prediction, based on knowledge of computers, staff work, and faith in marketing ingenuity" is that within 10 years we will find a microcomputer at every branch level of every major staff agency in the Air Force. Even so, military procurement will lag behind that of small business and "consumer" electronics. Those who are partial to gadgets (those who own both a microwave oven and a trash compactor, for instance) will have microcomputers doing the family books (even taxes!) and aiding in a thousand ways before they become evident in our offices. Let us look, then, at the staff officer/microprocessor interface and see what benefits we can find for the individual and the Air Force.

A recent straw poll around PACAF headquarters showed that about 35 percent of the staff officers have hand calculators of varying capabilities immediately available. They have provided these devices at their own expense. It can be inferred that these officers:

(a) frequently have to compile data in the form of numbers,
(b) cannot add, and
(c) need to save time in the statistical process.

Research for statistical and detailed information forms an ever increasing portion of the staff officer's workload. Officers with no training in money management are constantly being asked—How much will it cost? Another large portion of the workload consists of expressing, editing, and coordinating that which has been researched. Proper words, format, and style must be used. In all these major staff officer actions, a microcomputer can be of invaluable aid. It can, of course, do math like any calculator, but it can also indefinitely remember what it does, the details and background behind the numbers used, and provide for a great many variables and variations. After the question of "how much if" has been quickly answered, our lucky staff officer of five years from now will only need punch up "format"—staff "summary"—and start inputting his draft. Certainly a few places on base now have word processors that will allow a typist to correct mistakes and then retype a clean copy, but the microcomputer can, via telephone, transmit the paper to a coordinating office, show the coordination, and finally give a hard copy to the command section or anyone else who wants it, automatically. Data storage, retrieval, manipulation, and transmission—all will be immensely facilitated by the staff officer's friend, the microcomputer.

The typical microcomputer will bear a physical resemblance to more familiar remote terminals, recognizable by similar input-output devices. Those remotes are presently called "dumb terminals," because they only repeat what they are told and cannot manipulate the data in any way. Remote (dumb) terminals must give and take everything with the central computer. This system does have the one advantage of centralized memory—only one memory must be updated as things like base loading figures and other details change. Everyone is working from the same base line data. A method of bringing this advantage into the microcomputer idea is through the use of "smart terminals." These microcomputer "smart terminals" augment their own internal memory by referencing a central memory as needed. Certain data common to all staff agencies can be placed in a central memory and updated as needed. Items unique to each staff agency and branch can be kept in the microcomputer, along with instructions for manipulating and comparing the data to satisfy special needs. Agencies with little need to reference base line data could do very well with an isolated microcomputer that receives updated information on cassettes from a central library if and when needed.

There are many cost/flexibility trade-offs among the systems available, and alternatives will be selected to meet requirements. In most cases, however, the capability of the microcomputer to manipulate data for the individual staff officer without using valuable time on an expensive computer system will make its choice a cinch.

The benefits to the Air Force can be many and immediate. First, accuracy will be improved, and wild guesses will be fewer. While the old computer adage "garbage in—garbage out" still applies, overall staff work will be more accurate because details will be readily researched and referenced. The need to reinvent the wheel because the regular crew chief is not there will greatly diminish. Second, time will be saved. Time spent in research, coordination, drafting, editing, and typing will be greatly decreased. The increased individual capability may be used to cut manpower or produce more work, depending on the need. Finally, the detail that so often trips the action officer will be better. Inscribed somewhere in the staff officer hall of fame is the following phrase: "It isn't what we don't know that gets us into trouble. It's what we think we know--but don't." With this filing system at our fingertips, the microcomputer will enable us to be sure of what we know--and don't know.

If we look at the "school solution" for defining a staff study, we find this outline:

Problem
Factors bearing on the problem
Discussion
Conclusion
Recommended action.

The most time consuming and detailed entry is "Factors bearing on the problem." The subheaders under this section all deal with facts and their characteristics. Questions like can the facts be proved, supported, defined? Are all pertinent facts available? It is in this section, the most lengthy in the staff work problem, that the microcomputer can make strongest contribution. Certainly, it can help in other areas, such as providing graphic displays for illustration, but in the area of remembering, cataloging, and retrieving facts for an individual, the microcomputer supreme. The staff officer inquiry process does not demand speedy memories, just big ones. Relatively slow but big memory systems (tape cassettes, for instance) are available now at moderate prices. The facts and details in the staff study will be accurate, and more valid comparisons of alternatives will sparkle in the discussion points with the help of a microcomputer.

There is very little that anyone individual can do at this time to anticipate or precipitate the staff officer/microcomputer relationship. The timing of this link up will depend on the maturation of appropriate software and the aggressive marketing of similar systems for private industry. The time will come soon, however, when some aggressive action officer will be given the project of determining the value and impact of having microcomputers readily available to the individual project officer. When he gets that job, I hope he thinks back to this article and then does the thing we are all pointed toward-a good piece of staff work!

Hq Pacific Communications Area

Captain Frank J. Derfler, Jr., (M.Ed., University of South Carolina) is a Communications Plans Officer, Headquarters Pacific Communications Area. He has served as a tactical communicator, Ninth Air Force, and as an electronic countermeasures officer, Air Defense Command. He is an avid amateur radio operator and electronic hobbyist. Captain Derfler is a distinguished graduate of Officer Training School, the Communications Officer Course, and Squadron Officer School. He has published a variety of articles in other journals.

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